IndiaPost.com - UPA may lose govt; win N-deal

NEW DELHI: India looks headed for early elections due to a worsening split between the ruling Congress party and its left-wing allies over a nuclear deal with Washington, reports and officials here said. A government source said that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh appeared set to go ahead with implementing the pact with the United States, despite fierce objections from the communists who prop up his government in parliament.

Several Indian newspapers also predicted such a move, seen as certain to result in left-wingers pulling out of the governing coalition and polls being called for November or December.

"If they go ahead, we will have to reconsider our support," Marxist leader Sitaram Yechury told reporters. Government officials said the prime minister and Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi wanted to move forward on the deal before the G8 summit on July 7 when Singh will meet US President George W. Bush.

The Congress party is expected to make a decision after June 25, when it holds what is being billed as a final round of talks with its left-wing allies. The meeting was due to have taken place last week, but was postponed due to ongoing differences.

The government argues that the deal, which would give India access to the worldwide civilian nuclear energy trade even though it has not signed global non-proliferation pacts, is crucial for the country's energy security. "Governments come and go. Nuclear power is a requirement and assets must be created for our next generation," said Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, who heads a regional party with support in eastern India. Defending the deal, Yadav said by signing the agreement," We are not becoming a slave of America.

"I am hopeful the deal will come through and if not, it will be unfortunate for the country," he added. The accord is a centerpiece of Singh's foreign policy in that it brings India closer to the United States after New Delhi was on the opposite side of the fence during the Cold War era. But opponents -- including the communists and the opposition BJP -- say the pact compromises the principle of non-alignment in India's foreign policy.

They also say the deal, which would involve India having to submit to inspections by the UN's nuclear watchdog, could restrict its nuclear weapons programme. US officials have been stepping up pressure on New Delhi to clear the pact so that it can get final approval by the US Congress where it currently enjoys bipartisan support, before the US presidential elections in November.

Champions of the deal say it may not be offered in its present form under a new US administration. General elections in India are due to be held by May 2009, and Congress is seen as preferring to hold the polls over the winter when the weather is cooler. The party may also prefer to go into campaigning after what is expected to be a good harvest that could bring down hefty food prices which have emerged as a major political issue.

According to The Hindu newspaper, the talks were postponed because the left-wing parties had discovered the prime minister had decided to proceed with the deal anyway. The paper said the "two sides seem to be preparing for a parting of ways.

This means withdrawal of left support to the minority government and the fall of the government. If that happens, a November-December 2008 general election is virtually guaranteed." The Asian Age newspaper said the prime minister and Sonia Gandhi have "realized that the marriage of convenience between the Congress (party) and the left had lost its utility."