India Post News Service

NEW DELHI: Kashmir has been an intractable problem even at the best of times. But now, with the weakest ever government at the Center, the problem has been allowed to blow up in its face. The Amarnath Yatra land issue is just a pretext. The tensions brewing would have come to a head anyway as the impression was gaining that a paralyzed Center was incapable of moving at the political level. And Pakistan, a key element in the present crisis, has been successful in fishing in the troubled waters.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is not equipped to deal with this crisis. Unlike Atal Behari Vajpayee, he does not have the authority or a national mandate from the people of India to attempt any settlement in Kashmir or with Pakistan. The kind of passion and single-mindedness he has displayed in pursuing the nuclear deal with US is lacking in the case of Kashmir.

Instead of making a political move, he has been making pious statements like "all right thinking people must work together to bring peace and normalcy." By sending National Security Adviser M K Narayanan to Kashmir he seems to be treating it as a law and order problem.

What makes the situation different this time is the counter agitation in Jammu. The so-called secular approach is limited to assuaging Muslim concerns. But now they have to contend with an equal and opposite response from Jammu for every excess of the secessionists in Srinagar.

Narayanan did make a startling revelation after his visit - that Hurriyat leader Sheikh Abdul Aziz, whose shooting during the "LoC march" organized by Kashmir separatists on August 11 gave an explosive turn to the agitation, was not killed by a police or army bullet.

Thus a Pakistani agent might have provoked the agitation with the assassination of Hurriyat leader. The Central government did make a move to meet some of the demands of the separatists like opening of the Srinagar trade route to Muzaffarabad in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

But in an atmosphere surcharged with rumors, it is unable to convince the Kashmiris that it is Pakistan which is not responding. With the elections approaching, both in the state and at the Center, the maneuverability of the UPA government is further hampered. In normal conditions, it might have got away with the move to annul the land transfer for Amarnath Yatra.

But the unexpectedly strong reaction in Jammu has put paid to the government's plans. With no let up in the Jammu agitation there is a fear it could once again give separatists a handle to crank up emotions in the Valley.

On this, there is no breakthrough in sight with government wary of accepting the demand that the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board be allocated land at Baltal to manage facilities for yatra pilgrims. BJP has maintained that land can be allocated to the Board with the specific injunction that facilities be set up for the yatra season only.

Apart from electricity and sanitation facilities, all other structures could be removed once the yatra was concluded. While the government is hesitant in doing so, fearing a reaction in the Valley, this remains the bottomline for the Jammu agitationists.

The valley leaders in their short sighted thinking believe they won't have anything to do with Jammu. A hot reception awaits them in the winter capital later this year when the capital of the state shifts from Srinagar.

Even if the land transfer issue is resolved, there is the larger question of Pakistan's intentions of keeping the Kashmir pot boiling.

Security analyst C Raja Mohan cites western reports to claim that Pakistan's intelligence arm, the ISI, has used the internal chaos of the last few months to strengthen its ties with extremist groups in Afghanistan and renewed its encouragement to terror outfits in J&K.