NEW YORK: A fresh look at the Engineering graduate rates of India/China and the US, by a Duke University research raises concerns that China is racing ahead of the US and India in its ability to perform basic research.

Duke University published a study in 2005 on the engineering graduation rates of India/China and the US, which received extensive attention. The report had sought to correct the myths about India and China graduating 12 times as many bachelors level engineers in the US, and the US being in trouble because of this.

Now, for the last 15 months, a team headed by Vivek Wadhwa, Executive in Residence, Pratt School of Engineering, Duke University, and co-researchers Gary Gereffi, Ben Rissing, Ryan Ong, has been researching this topic further and are releasing the latest data in a report in the National Academy of Sciences magazine – "Issues in Science and Technology".

Wadhwa said, "We reported that the US actually graduates a comparable number of such engineers, and reported serious problems with the quality of Indian and Chinese graduates. We predicted shortages in India and unemployment in China. It seems we were right."

Titled ‘Where the Engineers are’, the new reports suggests that in order to guide education policy and maintain its innovation leadership, the United States must acquire an accurate understanding of the quantity and quality of engineering graduates in India and China.

The report says, China’s National Reform Commission reported that the majority of its 2006 graduates will not find work, and there have been several reports about engineering shortages in India. "The press has generally stopped using the incorrect numbers, but some still do. For example, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, was quoted last week, saying– ‘Consider that in 2005, more than 600,000 engineers graduated from institutions of higher education in China, compared to 350,000 in India and only 70,000 in the United States. China’s population is more than three times that of the US, yet they graduate more than eight times the number of engineers’," Wadhwa points out.

The Duke University research had raised many questions: What was the trend? Did degrees really matter? Was it a deficiency or shortage of skilled Americans that was causing companies to go offshore? Where was this headed? What about Masters and PhD graduation rates? What are the American advantages?

What the new research highlights is that "we’re fixing the wrong problems", says Wadhwa. "Outsourcing will continue and gain momentum, but this is not what we have to worry the most about.  It is the outsourcing of critical research and design that is likely to go next. The US and India seem asleep at the wheel while China races ahead," he adds.

Some of the highlights of the research are:

1. Starting in 1999, China flooded the market with bachelor’s level graduates to bring elite education to the masses and to drive down salaries and costs.

2. This created massive unemployment, and the vast majority of these graduates won’t find work. China has now slowed down.

3. India has serious problems in quantity and quality, but private enterprise has been India’s salvation – private colleges and "finishing schools" make up for the deficiencies.

4. Multinationals can hire from most colleges in India but they can’t hire from other than 10-15 schools in China.

5. It is not the education of Indian and Chinese workers that is causing outsourcing or a deficiency in the American workforce – it’s all about cost savings. There is no shortage of engineers in the U.S.

6. Outsourcing will continue and build momentum and what will go next is research and design. The loss of R&D is what poses the real threat to U.S. competitiveness.

7. These new jobs will require more Masters and PhD’s.

8. China now graduates more Masters and PhD’s in engineering than the U.S. Over a 10 year period, India and U.S. graduation rates have shown relatively very small increases.

9. India’s engineering PhD’s numbers have remained flat – less than 1,000 per year, while China graduated 9,427 in 2005 and the U.S. graduated 7,333. India does not even graduate enough to staff its growing universities.

Some of the major conclusions thus drawn out from the research are:

1. Even if the US fixed K-12 education as Senator Reid and others are rightfully advocating, it would take 10-15 years before we saw the benefits, and the US would have lost its competitive edge.

2. If we simply increased graduation rates, our graduates would suffer the same fate as Chinese graduates – unemployment and dropping salaries.

3. We can’t continue to depend on foreign students to fill our graduate and post-graduate programs – as the economies of India and China improve, they will start returning home.

4. While we improve our education, we need to welcome skilled immigrants.

5. Broad and informed solutions are needed to fix the problem of research going offshore.