The political crisis in Myanmar has topped the agenda at talks between leaders of the Southeast Asian nations and the European Union meeting in Singapore. The group, meeting for an annual summit, renewed international calls for the military junta to release pro-democracy prisoners but set no deadline for action.
The gathering came at the end of a four day meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where the 10 member nations tabled a new charter enshrining principles of democracy and human rights.
The socioeconomic condition of Myanamar is very disturbing. More than 60,000 Burmese, out of an estimated population of 50 million, are in some sort of forced labor, and AIDS is ravishing the country ferociously. In recent years, the flow of people out of Myanmar has become one of Southeast Asia's largest migration movements.
Thousands are thought to have gone south to Malaysia. Others have gone north to India and China, while more than 200,000 of the Rohingya minority group live in Bangladesh to the west. But by far the biggest group - two million people, according to most estimates - has headed east to Thailand. Thousands of civilians have been compelled to leave their villages, as part of a strategy to cut off support to armed opposition groups.
Restoration of democracy in Myanmar has much to do with the external factors. India's earlier primary condition for Myanmar was the restoration of democracy. But this policy has changed, seeing the expanding role of China in Myanmar. India sees Myanmar as a critical gateway for linking its northeast with a dynamic, extended neighborhood. India has also been seeking greater Trans Border cooperation with Myanmar in dealing with insurgency in the northeast.
Almost all of India's seven northeastern states are troubled by nagging separatist movements, and Delhi is banking on the junta to chase out the Myanmar-based rebels. So India has so far refrained from condemning the military crackdown on the democracy movement, and has rather called for negotiations for a phased return to democracy in Myanmar.
China has key strategic interests in the stability of Myanmar and, accordingly, strong ties with Rangoon. This has prompted the Indian government to seek stronger ties of its own with Myanmar's military regime in order to counter-balance China's growing influence. It is Myanmar's energy resources - oil and off-shore gas fields - that make it such an attractive partner for Russian, Chinese, Indian and even South Korean firms.
Any democratic transition requires sustained international pressure from China, India and Russia. The US and EU sanctions that are already in place have undoubtedly affected Myanmar's overall economy, but have failed to inflict much harm to the rich military generals, who are busy making deals with the rest of Asia.
Plenty of observers are convinced, with good reason, that the military government is simply buying time in the hope that the international attention will drift elsewhere. In the meantime, the authorities can push ahead with their own "seven-stage roadmap" to what they refer to as "discipline-flourishing democracy" - a slow, deeply controversial process.
Myanmar's political future is at the crossroads. The country's top two military rulers, Than Shwe and Maung Aye, are in no mood to restore democracy in Myanmar. Restoration of democracy, therefore, lies with the Chinese initiatives. India has been a vocal supporter of restoration of democracy in Myanmar.
If China pressurizes the two generals, things will change accordingly, for China exercises considerable influence on the generals. So, it is the right time to take on the junta for democratic reforms. Building China-India cooperation can play a major role in Myanmar. The venerated monks of Myanmar are determined to oust the military regime and they need enough external support to be successful.
The writer is Reader, MMH College, Meerut University
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