Defying prophecies of chaos and violence, the Nepal Government managed to conduct peaceful polls. While disruption by the Terai armed groups was prevented, it was the Maoists who were reportedly involved in a number of incidents of booth capturing and other disruptive activities.

Maoist disruptive activities were reported from Districts including Chitwan, Saptari, Siraha, Mahottari, Arghakhanchi, Lalitpur, Dolakha, Baglung, Sunsari, Bajhang, Rukum, Gorkha, Sindhupalchowk and Ramechhap. The Terai region did not witness any large scale election-related violence, primarily owing to the Government's antecedent Eight Point Agreement with the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), the biggest political alliance in the region, on February 28.

Pre-poll electioneering had, however, witnessed large scale violence among the supporters, principally, of the three major political parties: the NC, the CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist.

The Maoists had, clearly, been at the forefront of such confrontations. Such incidents included barring candidates and supporters from visiting constituencies or addressing rallies, targeting the candidates and clashes between supporters.

Worried about the deteriorating law and order situation, CEC Bhoj Raj Pokharel, on March 31, had summoned the top leaders of three major political parties in the Government and exhorted them to adhere strictly to the Election Code of Conduct. Commentators, however, insist that the absence of manifest violence masked an insidious mix of "propaganda and street muscle" employed by the Maoists. Kanak Mani Dixit, editor of Himal, noted, "The Maoists promised the Earth to poor, marginalized people and also ran a country-wide campaign of fear and intimidation to win the elections."

Despite the tremendous achievement of a poll relatively free of overt violence, the elections raise some troubling questions on the reaction of the Maoists. Senior Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai had, of course, announced that the Maoists would launch a 'new revolution' if the Party lost the CA.

Elsewhere, at an interaction with media persons in Kathmandu on March 14, Bhattarai had stated, "I think the decade-long conflict will not find its justification if we are defeated in the Constituent Assembly poll."

At an election meeting in Kaski District on April 5, Bhattarai said that the Maoists would go in for "State Capture" if the results for the upcoming Constituent Assembly election did not favor his Party, adding "It will not take us more than ten minutes to capture the State." Such an eventuality has, of course, now receded in view of the early Maoist successes.

The fate of King Gyanendra and the 240-year old institution of monarchy, in any event, now appears to be sealed. In the past few months, the King has been stripped of all his powers and property by the Government. Even as hopes of conciliation diminished, the King had called for free and fair elections: "We call upon all adult citizens to exercise their democratic right in a free and fair environment."

Earlier on April 5, Prachanda had warned the monarch of "strong punishment" if "he (the King) wants to resist the verdict of the masses". He added, however, "If he respects the wishes of the masses in the election then our masses will forgive him and he can live as a common citizen." The future of the monarchy is the first issue to be decided by the new CA.

The Maoist intent remains fraught with menace. Maoist supreme, Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda had clearly declared, on February 29: "We will capture the Constituent Assembly through elections in a new method and witness a miracle in one-and-a-half months."

He did not elaborate what the "new method" was, but it is evident that it has succeeded in sufficient measure. The elections have transferred the power to define the new Constitution into the Maoist fold.

With a significant - if not absolute - majority in the CA, and clear control of the Government, pushing through a radical, possibly totalitarian, agenda could quickly become a question of mere tactic and timing.

The total seizure of state power, the long-held and unambiguous objective of the Maoists through war and 'peace', is tantalizingly close.

The writer is Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management