India Post News Service

NEW YORK: For India to give up Kashmir and allow it to form an independent country would be disastrous as international terrorist outfits like the al Qaeda will take immediate control of it, according to Dr. Vijay K. Sazawal, a policy analyst and a commentator who specializes in local governance and intra-community issues affecting political dynamics within the Kashmir valley.

Dr. Sazawal, who is international coordinator of the Indo-American Kashmir Forum and founder of KashmirForum.Org, finds no credence in the views of some Indian intelligentsia who suggest that India should let go of Kashmir as it is nothing but a drain on the Indian taxpayer as well as on the armed forces. “Such opinions are nothing new, they keep coming up every time there is a flare up in J&K,” Dr. Sazawal says.

 “Reality is today even if India were to announce that Kashmir is independent and free, every country in the world, especially those that are fighting in Afghanistan, will make sure that India wouldn’t do something stupid like that.” And that, he says, is because international terrorist outfits like the al Qaeda will immediately take control of Kashmir and make it their haven. “You cannot create a country like that right next door, which will create a global problem,” says Dr. Sazawal. Fresh trouble erupted in Jammu & Kashmir on May 26 after the Congress-led government at the Center decided to transfer 100 acres of forestland to the Amarnath Shrine Board, which was to construct shelters to facilitate the annual Hindu pilgrims to Amarnath.

Elections in the state were scheduled for October, and the Amarnath land issue was picked up as an election ploy by the People’s Democratic Party led by Mufti Mohamed Sayeed, according to Sazawal. “But it got out of control.” Protests led to violent demonstrations both from the Kashmiri separatists and the Amarnath land supporters, eventually leading to several incidents of firing by security forces over the last two months, which claimed several casualties. The Valley is now echoing to renewed calls for ‘azaadi’ by the insurgents.

The issue has also become an excuse for Pakistani forces across the border to indulge in unwarranted firing. Dr. Sazawal has written extensively on the current political turmoil in Jammu and Kashmir, arguing for new and innovative approaches in understanding and resolving the simmering discontent in all communities and regions of the State. Based in Washington DC, Dr. Sazawal has been invited by the US Administration, the US Congress and major policy Think Tanks to address various aspects of the Kashmir problem. He is also a member of a non-governmental organization accredited to the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) and frequently speaks in Geneva on changing political and human rights situation in Kashmir.

According to Dr. Sazawal, the entire issue of an independent Kashmir or a Pakistani Kashmir has been created and sustained over the decades by just a small percentage of the urban population in the state. “Between the leaders and their followers, these separatists comprise just about 30 percent of the state’s population living in the big cities,” says Dr. Sazawal. With former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf stepping down from office and a new government taking over, the Kashmiri separatists are acting up to draw attention, says Dr. Sazawal.

“This 30 percent urban Kashmiri population is very smart. Their current agitation is not so much directed at the Indian government as it is directed at Pakistan’s new government -- they are trying to get their attention.” Speaking from knowledge from local sources, Dr. Sazawal says that relative the peace in Kashmir the past couple of years was due to the fact that the separatists have been trying to figure out what former President Musharraf was trying to do vis a vis Kashmir in the name of the peace process. “They (the separatists) actually started losing money because Pakistan had stopped funding them over the past few years,” Dr. Sazawal says. “Now with the new government in Pakistan, they are seeing an opportunity of getting back to the Pakistani taxpayers by showing signs of renewed insurgency.

We can already see the effects of this in the firings across the border from Pakistan and the ISI masterminded bomb explosion outside the Indian Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan.” Throwing light on the ground realities in the Valley, Dr. Sazawal further says, “There is an intricately woven link between the politicians, top bureaucrats, the business houses in the Valley who between themselves own the local tourism industry, the carpet industry and the real estate. These powerful few who benefit from the government’s funding are the same people who instigate the anti-India sentiments and orchestrate violence and demonstrations.”

As one who regularly interacts with various sections of the Kashmiri society including local and national politicians, bureaucrats, journalists and security officials, Dr. Sazawal describes insurgency in Kashmir as a well-oiled machine that raises its head from time to time to monetarily benefit from both the Indian and Pakistani governments.

He says the movement for ‘azaadi’ (independence), the whole exercise of alienation and the machinations and demonstrations out in the streets of Jammu & Kashmir has immensely helped those involved financially. “Every once in 3-4 years these people, who form just about 30 percent of the urban Kashmiri population, sacrifice a few bodies in the name of their movement and in turn benefit from the compensatory funds doled out by the Indian government or the Pakistani government, which is actually being paid for by the taxpayers of both countries,” he says.

For a state with zero industry, Jammu & Kashmir has the highest per capita consumption, Dr. Sazawal points out, thanks to the disproportionately high grants and aid doled out by the Indian government. “There is a well-entrenched class structure system which feeds on this frenzy because Kashmir gets a disproportionate amount of funds compared to other Indian states. The tragedy is only 30 percent of people in the cities are benefiting-- just 10 miles out of the cities people are still living in the stone ages.” Dr. Sazawal, however, points out that when the current uprising began in June, it was totally indigenous.

“It was all local two months back when it started. But now they are back in touch with Pakistan and are building on the movement with Pakistani support. The movement has still not reached its optimum level, it has just started,” he says ominously. Protests and demonstrations in the Valley are never spontaneous or emotionally-motivated, Dr. Sazawal says, “they are very methodically and clinically planned by the separatists who operate in unison irrespective of their individual party affiliations. It is a homogenous unit that moves as a block.

This is actually their approach to revenue sharing and revenue gathering, it is purely a money-making machine,” he stresses. Dr. Sazawal sees no solution to the Kashmir issue. “There is no solution; it will run its course. There will always be low level simmering and this whole experience of alienation will never die. These leaders do not believe in carrying every Kashmiri along, whether Hindu or Muslim. They will not let go of the money and the power that comes with it.

They give a damn for the ordinary folks and the poor farmers in the villages.” The worst sufferers, who go without being mourned even by the rest of the country, are the armed forces personnel who are dying needless deaths in the Valley everyday, according to Dr. Sazawal.