BJP model gives the ruling party 255 seats in UP

NEW DELHI: The BJP is predicting it will win 255 seats in the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls as per its Political Affinity Model (PAM). The Model is based on the political affinity of the castes of Uttar Pradesh towards BJP.

As per the model, Brahmin vote is moving 25 per cent away from the BJP as it got 100 per cent affinity in 2017 elections while this time it will be 75 per cent. Kurmi caste is moving away 50 per cent away from BJP to 50 per cent in 2022 from 100 per cent in 2017. The same number prevails for the Jats in 2022, Gujjar, Rajbhar, Bind and Kushwaha.

In 2017, 35-40 per cent of Jatavs moved voted for BJP but this time only 25 per cent will vote in favour of BJP with a 15 per cent shift away from BJP.

For the 26 other castes, BJP is expecting a 100 per cent affinity vote. These are Thakur, Kayastha, Bania, Bhumihar, Maurya, Lodhi, Saini, Pasi, Kori, Shakya, Tyagi , Baghel, Valmiki, Kharwar, Dhobi, Sikh, Pal ,Goswami, Sahariya, Jamadar, Halwai, Lohar, Sindhi, Gond, Dom, Vanvasi, etc.

The castes with no political affinity are Muslim and Yadav where BJP expects zero or nil percentage of votes.

As per the BJP projection, it is winning 255 seats and losing 158 seats. In the Pashchim region, out of 70 it is winning less than half or 34 seats, in the Braj region it is winning 49 out of 65, in the Awadh region 55 out of 81, 36 out of 65 in Gorakhpur and 42 out of 71 in Kashi region. 

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