WASHINGTON: The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has forecasted upto 233,000 coronavirus deaths in the country by October 31. A new ensemble forecast published by the CDC on Thursday indicated an uncertain trend in new Covid-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 2,800 to 6,800 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 31
The national ensemble predicted that a total of 224,000 to 233,000 fatalities will be reported by this date. The forecast was based on information from 41 modelling groups. Of the 41 groups, 37 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, one group forecasted total deaths only, and three forecasted new deaths only.
An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks. Both national and state-level ensemble forecasts are developed for predicting new and total Covid-19 deaths reported each week for the next 4 weeks.
The US continues to lead the world with the highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths. As of Friday, the overall number of cases in the country reached 7,603,746, while the death toll stood at 212,716, according to the Johns Hopkins University.
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