Us Out, China In

Big brother and the leader of the democratic world America has been in the forefront to combat violent attempts to subjugate democracies, be it communism or terrorism. Since mid-last-century, US has readily defended several countries across Europe, Iraq in Middle East, Japan and Vietnam. Millions of young Americans have also lost their lives due to this US policy.

The question is – Did it make any difference? The answer is “Yes” and “No”.

The Second World War did make a big change in how America was perceived globally. At home, it brought progress in defense production, massive employment opportunities and huge development of infrastructure and scientific advancement of a kind the world had not witnessed before.

However, it changed post Vietnam War of 70s when America got involved to stop the spread of communism. After its exit from Vietnam the vacuum created was soon filled-in by China. Now, China is fully entrenched in Vietnam both militarily and commercially. Result, America lost both men and money. Most of the commercial establishments in Vietnam had been of Chinese origin anyway. The same thing happened in Laos and other places in South East Asia.

Take the recent example of Myanmar. After the most recent elections, the military ultimately refused to honor the results, which the NLD, headed by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, had won. World leaders, primarily US, put up several sanctions against Myanmar’s military regime for human rights abuse and arresting democratically elected leaders. Has it changed anything or made a difference. Big “NO”. The people who had been suffering under military rule for the last 50 years have become poorer and are now also cut-off to the outside world.

Myanmar was slowly opening up towards a return to democracy over the past few years but is again back to anarchy. US Sanctions may look good to the world but in such cases the advantage has always been taken up by China or Russia. It is evident the Burmese generals could not have acted alone and without support of China. Arms, ammunition and supply of all essentials were directly provided by China. China is very aware of the fact if Myanmar embraces democracy the ripple will upset its own domestic issues, mainly in Hong Kong.

A similar problem now arises in Afghanistan. Within weeks we are witness to China’s chess moves. A recent invitation to Taliban representatives by China is a case in point. As US forces exit Afghanistan, China will slowly but surely fill-in the gap. China is not interested in human rights, women empowerment, democracy and such ideology. Their current goal is to push the Belt and Road Initiative through Pakistan and to support the Taliban.

China’s support to any regime doesn’t come free. They have taken almost all resources from Myanmar, which include oil, precious stones and food, which Myanmar has in abundance. They are aware of what Afghanistan can offer and slowly they too will be converted into a debt economy. Chinese investments wherever deployed, have countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Cambodia and Thailand, all under huge debt to China. US and India will need to be very cautious!