The short-lived revolt by Wagner troops has weakened President Vladimir Putin just as his forces are facing a fierce counteroffensive in Ukraine.
Under terms of the agreement which was brokered by Belarus President Lukashenko that ended the crisis, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led his Wagner troops in an aborted march on the capital last Saturday, will go into exile in Belarus but will not face prosecution.
The Wagner forces’ largely unopposed, rapid advance just 200 km away, also exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s security and military forces. The mercenary soldiers were reported to have downed several helicopters and a military communications plane.
It was not yet clear what the fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for the war in Ukraine. But it resulted in some of the best forces fighting for Russia being pulled from the battlefield. The Wagner troops had shown their effectiveness in scoring Kremlin’s only land victory in months, in Bakhmut and Chechen.
By the way people in Rostov-on-Don cheered Wagner troops as they departed, one can see that the public is not too happy with Putin’s handling of the war. It is clearly showing signs of a popular uprising. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin as he drove away in an SUV.
This may very well be the first sign to the beginning of the end of Putin’s 23 yrs in power.
The recent events in Russia must have sent signals to Xi Jinping in China, as he may be next on line, if he tries to venture into Taiwan straits. China, similar to Russia is also facing real challenges in dealing with slowing down of its economy and massive unemployment. Modi’s state visit to US and signing of several defense and other crucial technologies would also change equations between India and China. Chinese youth are also not happy with the draconian laws and suppression in China and they may rise against the regime anytime in the near future.
The Russian resurrection will surely have a ripple effect in other dictatorial countries like Myanmar, where they are killing and bombing their own citizens.
When US forces found Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan, it was clear that the country was training and supporting terrorism worldwide. Situation in Pakistan is also going through some serious changes. Countries that support and export terrorism are now themselves facing consequences of the same forces. Their economy is in shambles, deep in debt and may soon become a failed state.
India on the other hand is not doing too badly. It is keeping all doors open and concentrating on its own economy and progress. However, being a large country with multiple domestic issues, it needs to tread carefully. It must inculcate good relations with ASEAN partners, as well as, the Indo-Pacific region. Modi’s leadership is much needed to continue the momentum of India’s progress. He needs to wean out bad apples within his own party to win State elections in the coming months.
Many BJP leaders may have won elections earlier due to Modi’s popularity but the “Modi Magic” no longer exists. The people want results and parties must earn to win the elections.
